UMP-45 | Delusion
Screen-printed with a nautilus shell design, the UMP-45 | Delusion brings organic, oceanic imagery to the SMG's surface. A Mil-Spec skin from The Vanguard Collection, it is obtainable through the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case. The float range is notably tight, running from 0.06 to 0.35, which restricts copies to Minimal Wear and Field-Tested condition exclusively, preventing both pristine Factory New and heavily worn appearances. StatTrak is available. The nautilus motif and the "Carcosa is calling" tagline give the finish a distinctly atmospheric, literary character within the Vanguard lineup.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Restricted in The Vanguard Collection. Avg listed output $4.02.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
UMP-45 | Delusion cannot roll Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred because its float cap is 0.06–0.35. Wear ranges.
Cases & Drop Odds for UMP-45 | Delusion
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | — | — | $11.77 | $0.65 | -94.5% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy UMP-45 | Delusion
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