Is unboxing cheaper than buying the skin?

Almost never on average. Case expected value is usually below case + key cost. Use this table to see the source case, then compare to the steam/third-party listing on the skin page.

Tools

Best Case for a CS2 Skin

Match a popular skin to the case that drops it. Compare case price vs buying the finish on the market — opening is +EV only in rare catalogs.

Skin	Cheapest source case	Case price	Case EV
XM1014 \| CaliCamo	See skin page	—	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast	Chroma 2 Case	$5.99	$4.37
XM1014 \| Scumbria	Shadow Case	$2.85	$3.58
XM1014 \| Blue Spruce	See skin page	—	—
XM1014 \| Mockingbird	Fever Case	$0.89	$1.83
XM1014 \| Blue Steel	See skin page	—	—
★ Ursus Knife	Danger Zone Case	$2.24	$2.35
XM1014 \| Fallout Warning	See skin page	—	—
AK-47 \| Slate	Snakebite Case	$0.85	$2.20
XM1014 \| Monster Melt	See skin page	—	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed	Shadow Case	$2.85	$3.58
AK-47 \| Asiimov	Danger Zone Case	$2.24	$2.35
Desert Eagle \| Printstream	Fracture Case	$0.93	$1.24
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive	Dreams & Nightmares Case	$1.99	$2.06
★ Butterfly Knife	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$11.50	$5.96
XM1014 \| Seasons	Spectrum Case	$6.01	$3.60
★ M9 Bayonet	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$6.36	$4.25
XM1014 \| Red Python	eSports 2014 Summer Case	$25.33	$13.94
★ Stiletto Knife	Danger Zone Case	$2.24	$2.35
XM1014 \| Blue Tire	See skin page	—	—
AK-47 \| Redline	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$6.36	$4.25
XM1014 \| Hieroglyph	Anubis Collection Package	$3.03	$12.25
XM1014 \| XOXO	Snakebite Case	$0.85	$2.20
★ Karambit	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$6.36	$4.25
XM1014 \| Black Tie	Chroma 3 Case	$5.29	$3.71
AWP \| Neo-Noir	Danger Zone Case	$2.24	$2.35
★ Gut Knife	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$6.36	$4.25
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner	Revolver Case	$4.46	$3.81
★ Paracord Knife	Fever Case	$0.89	$1.83
AWP \| Dragon Lore	See skin page	—	—
★ Shadow Daggers	Shadow Case	$2.85	$3.58
Zeus x27 \| Olympus	Kilowatt Case	$0.29	$1.08
XM1014 \| Bone Machine	See skin page	—	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$11.50	$5.96
★ Navaja Knife	Danger Zone Case	$2.24	$2.35
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines	See skin page	—	—
★ Bayonet	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$6.36	$4.25
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue	See skin page	—	—
★ Survival Knife	Fever Case	$0.89	$1.83
XM1014 \| Urban Perforated	See skin page	—	—
XM1014 \| Ziggy	Spectrum 2 Case	$4.74	$3.59
★ Huntsman Knife	Huntsman Weapon Case	$13.54	$7.10
P250 \| See Ya Later	Spectrum 2 Case	$4.74	$3.59
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze	Clutch Case	$1.05	$1.85
XM1014 \| Tranquility	Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	$9.27	$7.01
★ Classic Knife	CS20 Case	$1.96	$2.66
XM1014 \| Quicksilver	Chroma Case	$7.44	$4.88
★ Kukri Knife	Kilowatt Case	$0.29	$1.08