UMP-45 | Riot
Available in the Falchion Case and part of The Falchion Collection, the UMP-45 | Riot is a Mil-Spec SMG skin combining hydrographics and heat-transfer decals into a single finish. The UMP-45's versatility as a close-quarters automatic makes it a practical choice, and this paint treatment gives it a visually complex surface. The float range runs from 0 to 0.70, stopping before Battle-Scarred condition, so the most degraded obtainable examples fall in the upper Well-Worn range. Near peak float, the decal and hydrographic elements begin to wear noticeably. StatTrak versions are available.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Falchion Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Restricted in The Falchion Collection. Avg listed output $1.34.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
Cases & Drop Odds for UMP-45 | Riot
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Falchion Case | — | — | $5.12 | $0.65 | -87.3% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy UMP-45 | Riot
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