Nova | Rising Skull
Available from the Winter Offensive Weapon Case within The Winter Offensive Collection, Nova | Rising Skull is a Restricted shotgun skin with StatTrak availability. Matte paints combined with an oil-based paint marker were used to apply a skull image across the shotgun's body, giving the artwork a hand-crafted quality distinct from purely hydrographic finishes. The float range stops at 0.5, capping wear at Well-Worn. At cleaner float values the matte skull retains strong contrast and detail, while mid-to-high float examples develop visible surface wear that softens the painted skull's harder edges.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Winter Offensive Weapon Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Classified in The Winter Offensive Collection. Avg listed output $25.62.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
Cases & Drop Odds for Nova | Rising Skull
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Winter Offensive Weapon Case | — | — | $19.30 | $0.65 | -96.6% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy Nova | Rising Skull
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