Nova | Toy Soldier
Hand painted in a familiar shade of green designed to evoke childhood memories of plastic toy soldiers, Nova | Toy Soldier is a Restricted finish from The Horizon Collection, obtainable via the Horizon Case. StatTrak functionality is available. The float range runs the full span from 0 to 1.0, so every wear tier exists in the market. At lower floats the green paint appears smooth and vibrant, closely matching the classic toy aesthetic. Progressively higher wear introduces scratches and chips that, in context, could arguably reinforce the impression of a well-used toy passed through many hands.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Horizon Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Classified in The Horizon Collection. Avg listed output $5.86.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
Cases & Drop Odds for Nova | Toy Soldier
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Horizon Case | — | — | $5.58 | $0.65 | -88.4% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy Nova | Toy Soldier
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