XM1014 | Scumbria
Subtle metallic paints distinguish the XM1014 | Scumbria, a Mil-Spec skin from the Shadow Case and The Shadow Collection. Unlike more graphic shotgun finishes, the design relies on understated metallic layering rather than bold imagery. Its float range runs the full 0 to 1 spectrum, meaning copies exist across every wear tier from Factory New to Battle-Scarred, with heavier floats progressively muting the metallic sheen. StatTrak is available. The skin is tied to the A Father's Love narrative referenced in its flavor text, grounding it in the Shadow Case storyline.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Shadow Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Restricted in The Shadow Collection. Avg listed output $1.54.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
Cases & Drop Odds for XM1014 | Scumbria
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shadow Case | — | — | $5.35 | $0.65 | -87.9% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy XM1014 | Scumbria
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