XM1014 | Watchdog
Featuring a jade green base coat and three guardian lion motifs, the XM1014 | Watchdog is a Mil-Spec shotgun skin from the Operation Riptide Case and The Operation Riptide Collection. Two lions face opposite directions along the body while a third sits beneath the rear sight. The full float range of 0 to 1 means examples span Factory New to Battle-Scarred, with heavier wear gradually dulling the jade finish. StatTrak versions are available for players who track their eliminations with this guardian-themed automatic shotgun.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Operation Riptide Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Restricted in The Operation Riptide Collection. Avg listed output $4.39.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
Cases & Drop Odds for XM1014 | Watchdog
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Operation Riptide Case | — | — | $19.79 | $0.65 | -96.7% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy XM1014 | Watchdog
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