M4A1-S | Guardian
Painted cobalt blue and stenciled with the CT logo on the magazine, the M4A1-S | Guardian is a Classified skin from The Winter Offensive Collection, obtainable through the Winter Offensive Weapon Case with StatTrak availability. The silenced M4A1-S already offers reduced recoil and improved accuracy in-game, complemented here by a purpose-built CT-themed aesthetic. An accompanying quote from Carmen Cocinero reads, "I don't have to like you, I have to keep you safe." Its float range caps at 0.50, so only Factory New through Field-Tested condition examples are available, keeping the cobalt finish relatively clean.
Cheapest wear we have on this page. Pattern / float overpay is extra.
Winter Offensive Weapon Case: (case+key) ÷ drop chance. Average, not a promise.
Ten of this rarity → Covert in The Winter Offensive Collection. Avg listed output $149.64.
Price History & Performance
Price by Wear
Cases & Drop Odds for M4A1-S | Guardian
Probability of unboxing this skin per single case open, expected number of opens until you get one, and the case's expected return based on the current market value of every skin inside.
| Case | Drop Chance | Expected Opens | Open Cost | Market EV | EV vs Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Winter Offensive Weapon Case | — | — | $19.30 | $0.65 | -96.6% |
Drop chance = official rarity odds ÷ size of that rarity pool inside the case. Market EV is the probability-weighted average of every skin's lowest current listing. "EV vs Cost" compares that EV against the case + key price — negative means opening loses money on average.
Where to Buy M4A1-S | Guardian
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